'They're going to be hawkish by definition, but there's danger. Caron said that could move up to 3% or higher. In the central bank's projections, it uses a different metric and currently forecasts personal consumption expenditures' inflation at 2.7% for 2022. Morgan Stanley's Caron said he expects the Fed to raise its consensus forecast to signal that headline consumer price inflation could be at 4% to 5%. I think talking about recession is very premature, but talking about significant economic slowdown is not only not premature but I think it should be the base case.'īlackRock expects the Fed's projections to now show GDP growing at a 2.8% pace in 2022, down from 4% in its December forecast. economy, the consumer … and corporates are still in tremendous shape. They're going to upgrade inflation significantly, and more people will talk about stagflation,' BlackRock's Rieder said. 'I think they're going to downgrade significantly. The central bank's so-called 'dot plot' is a chart that shows where individual Fed officials expect interest rates to fall. The Fed will be releasing new forecasts for growth and inflation, in addition to interest rates, on Wednesday. 'That's an important unique aspect this, but at the same time we have to put this in context the Fed is already late to the game.' Fed forecasts 'The Fed's immediate reaction is going to be to fight inflation, but down the road it has to look at slower growth from higher oil prices,' said Zandi. Zandi said he's not expecting a recession, but the odds of it happening have risen to 1 in 3 in the next 12 to 18 months.

and whatever other geopolitical problems come down the road.' It really does depend on what happens with the stock market, credit spreads, sentiment. 'The Fed is desperately trying to balance things and avoid going into recession.

I suspect financial conditions are going to tighten significantly and do some of the work for the Fed,' said Mark Zandi, chief economist at Moody's Analytics. 'This complicates things that they're starting at zero. Personal Loans for 670 Credit Score or Lower Personal Loans for 580 Credit Score or Lower Best Debt Consolidation Loans for Bad Credit

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